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will johnson win new mexico

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Who’s ahead in New Mexico?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

This state does not have enough data to show polling averages. Averages will not be displayed unless a state has at least five total polls or polls from at least three pollsters.

Added Nov. 16, 2020

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 2, 2020

Nov. 1, 2020

Oct. 31, 2020

Oct. 20, 2020

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Polls conducted after June 28, 2018, the date this page was published, are listed by the date that FiveThirtyEight collected them; polls conducted before then are listed under the last date that the poll was in the field. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter.

* Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.

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The latest political polls collected by FiveThirtyEight.

Gary Johnson Will Run as a Libertarian. Can He Win New Mexico?

Its former two-term governor could make a powerful play for the state’s five electoral votes.

After being refused entry into all but two of the Republican Party’s primary debates and failing to gain traction with voters in New Hampshire, Gary Johnson is dropping out of the GOP primary and seeking the nomination of a less popular party where his views and dearth of culture war mentality are a better fit. And assuming he emerges as the Libertarian Party’s standard bearer in 2012? There is at least one state where he’d be competitive in a three-way race: the swing-state of New Mexico, where Obama beat McCain in 2008, Bush beat Kerry in 2004, and Gore beat Bush in 2000.

Johnson was governor of the state between 1995 and 2003, winning reelection handily and leaving office popular with voters. He’d enjoy strong name recognition and would likely start out the race viewed more favorably there than President Obama or the Republican Party’s nominee. Founded in 1971, the Libertarian Party has never fielded a presidential candidate who won a state. Johnson could give that party its best shot at doing so.

Image credit: Reuters

Its former two-term governor could make a powerful play for the state's five electoral votes.