Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction, Game Preview
By Pete Fiutak November 21, 2020 2:33 am
By Pete Fiutak | November 21, 2020 2:33 am
Ohio State vs Indiana prediction and game preview.
Ohio State vs Indiana Broadcast
Date: Saturday, November 21
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Ohio State (3-0) vs Indiana (4-0) Game Preview
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Why Indiana Will Win
The lines have been solid so far, with the offensive side giving Michael Penix Jr. time to work.
The left-handed sophomore struggled for the first 58 minutes of the season, led IU to the win over Penn State, and he hasn’t slowed down ever since, throwing for 320 yards or more in each of the last two games. Even though he threw two picks against Michigan State, there weren’t any problems in the shutout win thanks to the defensive front that stuffed everything.
The Hoosiers allowed a grand total of 73 rushing yards against Michigan and Michigan State, they lead the Big Ten in sacks, and they’re second in tackles for loss. They’re going to get to Justin Fields and apply enough pressure to be a problem.
Why Ohio State Will Win
How do you know you have a great team? You don’t play that great – at least by your own high standards – and you still roll to three straight double-digit wins.
No, there’s no JK Dobbins around anymore, but the Buckeye have rushed for over 200 yards in each of the first three games.
No, this isn’t the same receiving corps as the 2019 version, but Fields hasn’t had any issues hitting 87% of his passes for 908 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception.
No, the defensive front isn’t quite the same sort of a killer without Chase Young, but it still leads the Big Ten in sacks and there haven’t been too many things to get into a twist over defensively.
For all of the good things Indiana is doing, there’s no real running game. It has yet to push past 118 yards in any of the four games, it’s averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, and that means …
What’s Going To Happen
It’s Michael Penix or Bust against the Buckeyes, and that’s a problem.
Fields will be better than Penix.
It’s not that Penix isn’t amazing, and it’s not that he won’t have a good game, and it’s not that IU doesn’t have the ability to make this slightly interesting, but this is a one-dimensional offensive team against an Ohio State team that either needs to be pounded on, or has to deal with a versatile O full of playmakers.
Look at this as a copy of Ohio State’s game against Penn State. It’ll be great, there won’t be any real concerns after a few early scores, but the final score will look cosmetically better than the game itself with Indiana putting up a few late points to hang around.
Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction, Line
Ohio State 41, Indiana 23
Bet on Ohio State vs Indiana with BetMGM
Ohio State -20.5, o/u: 66.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 4.5
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College Football Odds & Picks for Indiana vs. Ohio State: Betting Value on Buckeyes
James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave.
- We have a top-10 Big Ten matchup on our hands as the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday.
- The Buckeyes’ rise to the top of the conference standings is very unsurprising, but the Hoosiers weren’t expected to be in this position at this point in the season.
- Check out Collin Wilson’s full betting preview with updated odds below.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Odds
|Indiana Odds||+20.5 [BET NOW]|
|Ohio State Odds||-20.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+670/-1025 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||66 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, noon ET|
|Odds updated Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up and your bets automatically sync to the Action app.|
Based solely on the eye test, the Hoosiers are legitimate Big Ten contenders with an undefeated record straight up and against the spread. However, there is probable cause for further inspection.
Indiana has beaten Michigan State, Rutgers, Michigan and Penn State. If their records against each other aren’t included, Indiana’s opponents have a combined 1-13 record .
Head coach Tom Allen was a former defensive coordinator, and that side of the Indiana equation has been stable. The Hoosiers rank 18th in tackling, per Pro Football Focus grading. The team also reports a top-10 defensive Havoc rating, derived from 27 passes defended and 26 tackles for loss.
Indiana’s opponents are averaging just 2.4 points per trip past the 40-yard line, making Indiana one of the best defenses at limiting scores. Opponents have only driven past the Hoosiers’ 40-yard line nine times this season, with the defense allowing just five touchdowns on those drives in four games.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are the top overall team in Offensive Success Rate, with that overall rating breaking down to 17th in the rushing game and seventh in passing attempts.
Yet, anyway you slice it, no one is moving the chains better than Ohio State.
While Justin Fields is completing plenty of explosive plays through the air, an Offensive Rushing Expected Points rank of 75th exposes the breakaway speed of the Ohio State running game.
Running backs Trey Sermon and Master Teague III average no more than 3.1 yards after contact, which tells you Ohio State has been on cruise control without facing a quality run-stop unit. However, at some point this season, a defense that can play one-on-one coverage will give the Buckeyes issues.
Defensively, only the Nebraska ground game has been able to get a punch in on the Buckeyes. The Cornhuskers put up more than 200 yards rushing on the Buckeyes’ front seven, something Rutgers and Penn State were unable to replicate.
Ohio State’s 118th-place rank in defensive Power Success reveals a key deficiency: Any opposing offense that is successful in short-yardage rush attempts will handle the Buckeyes. Opponents have also been able to score when reaching the red zone, as Ohio State ranks 105th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage.Check out Collin Wilson's college football betting guide with odds, picks and predictions for Saturday's Big Ten game between Indiana and Ohio State. ]]>