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Dan celia stock picks

Happy Birthday, America

It sometimes seems that the nation has forgotten that America is a nation under God founded on Judeo/Christian and biblical principles. There almost seems a pride in some to say we are not a Christian nation.

Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration believed “God who gave us life gave us liberty.” The U.S. Supreme Court also identified America as a Christian nation in 1892, after 10 years of examining hundreds of documents on the foundation of the Country. The justices came to the unanimous conclusion that the documents undeniably “add a volume of unofficial declarations to the mass of organic utterances that this is a religious people, a Christian nation.” Just so you don’t think that was then, it is now 2009. The US Supreme Court still opens each session with the verbal declaration, “GOD save the United States of America.”

The signers (all but 5 of were Christians) intended the document to officiate the separation between America and Great Britain. However, they based the Declaration, which has served as a foundation to the beginnings of the American nation, upon a greater foundational belief that God, or as written in the Declaration, “Creator,” was the source for men’s irrevocable rights. It was very natural for the early Americans to turn to the Bible for guidance as to how to make civil law. This was the standard for law beginning with the Mayflower Compact, all the way through the constitutions of every State in this Country.

Samuel Adams, who signed the historic document and writer of the Rights of the Colonists (November 1772), once said, “Just and true liberty, equal and impartial liberty, in matters spiritual and temporal is a thing that all men are clearly entitled to by the eternal and immutable laws of God and nature, as well as by the laws of nations and all well-grounded and municipal laws, which must have their foundation in the former.”

According to the late Ronald W. Reagan, the 40th President of the United States, “Without God there is no virtue because there is no prompting of the conscience. without God there is a coarsening of the society; without God democracy will not and cannot long endure. If we ever forget that we are one Nation Under God, then we will be a Nation gone under.” That may be one of the more prophetical statements of our modern day. We understand what president Reagan meant as we stand in witness.

As Christians, remind your children and grandchildren, flying our flag this weekend should serve as a reminder of the freedom we enjoy because our founders stood firmly on the Bible, and let it be a reminder that even though the house appears as though it is crumbling, the foundation is strong and we always need to be building upon it. No other foundation will do.

May God Bless this Nation and May He bring our leaders back to building on the Foundation of GOD.

A Win-Win Investment?

It is called TIPS.

What’s in Your Portfolio?

If you want into the market, take a look at my suggestions.

  • The symbol for the first company is RTN and that is Raytheon. Raytheon is primarily a defense contractor, and a company that I have always liked.
  • The next one is KFT or Kraft Foods. You have often heard me say that, I believe no matter what the Economy is like, people are going to eat macaroni and cheese, cereal, and use toilet paper.
  • This leads me to my next pick, GIS, or General Mills. General Mills is, again, a strong company at this point with a great valuation, and one that pays good dividends and will likely continue, although they may get reduced.
  • The other one is similar to Raytheon, and that is LMT, or Lockheed Martin. Lockheed Martin is positioned very well internationally, as well as domestically.
  • Another one is back to the food industry. California Pizza Kitchens (CPKI) is a great company with strong fundamentals and a very high free cash flow. California Pizza Kitchen is a company that I like, because like macaroni and cheese, and cereal, everybody eats pizza; and they are positioned for tremendous growth over the next five years.
  • First is PIMCO (PTTRX) or (PTTDX). PIMCO is a great bond fund and one of the best performing mutual funds over the past twelve months. They return a great yield, with an emphasis for you on preservation of principal – and certainly a great income fund that you ought to consider.
  • Another very conservative fund that I like is Vanguard GNMA Fund (VFIIX). Vanguard GNMA Fund is, again, a very good fund, and has had excellent performance for the past twelve months. This is, again, a great fund for conservative steady growth, outpacing CDs. But again, both of those funds do come with market risk, whereas CDs do not.
  • Another possibility that I will mention, since I talked about it in a previous article, is TIP, which is iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (iShares Barclays Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond Fund). This fund is 90% TIPS, which you know from my previous article, is an inflation-protected treasury bond. This can help you take advantage of rising inflation, while preserving and protecting some of your principal. But again, it comes with market risk, whereas CDs do not.

Again, all three of those funds, as well as the stocks, involve putting your money in the market, and there is risk associated with all of them. It is very important that you understand all the risk that pertains to these kinds of investments; I hope you are working with someone that will explain all of your risk and someone who knows your risk tolerance and your goals and objectives.

As always, if you have questions about any of those, please do not hesitate to email me at [email protected] , as you consider your investment strategies.

Even though American troops have now pulled out of all cities in Iraq and still are on schedule to be completely withdrawn by the end of 2011, 64% of voters do not believe the war in Iraq is over. If violence reoccurs, most voters say the Iraqis should deal with it rather than sending U.S. troops back in.

Only 32% of Americans say are willing to pay higher taxes so that health insurance can be provided for all Americans..

Just for Your Information

NAMPA, Idaho, July 3 /Christian Newswire/ — This marks the first time in the 42 year history of the event that a flyover request was denied by the Pentagon. The event is held every year to honor the spiritual foundations of our Country, with a special emphasis on the men and women who serve in the armed forces. In past years, the “God and Country Rally” has focused on honoring and paying tribute to those veterans who have served our nation in the past, and those who are currently on active duty. At the rally this year, all five branches of the armed services were featured, with over 60 new recruits sworn into the military at the event.

After a phone conversation and an e-mail response from the Pentagon, Rally Director Patti Syme says they were denied the request for a flyover this year because of the “Christian” nature of the event.

The Christian Defense Coalition says this is a “slap in the face” to all those who have proudly served, or are currently on active duty, in the armed services. The group is concerned that this new policy may indicate an open hostility toward public expressions of faith by the Obama Administration.

Rev. Patrick J. Mahoney, Director of the Christian Defense Coalition, states, “For years, flyovers have been allowed by the Pentagon at the ‘God and Country Rally’ in Nampa Idaho. These flyovers were not to endorse or promote any one religious faith tradition. Rather, they were held to honor and pay tribute to our heroic men and women who have served or are currently serving in our armed forces. For the Obama Administration to deny a flyover for the first time, is a slap in the face to all those who proudly serve our country, especially when we are at war. These flyovers have been a special part of the ‘God and Country Rally’ for many years.”

“Will the new policy of President Obama be that a person has to surrender their faith tradition to honor and pay tribute to our courageous men and women who serve in the military?”

“With respect to the economic concerns that the Pentagon mentioned, I would answer this way. If we can pay hundreds thousands of dollars for President Obama to go on a date with his wife to see a Broadway show and have an expensive dinner in New York City, we can certainly find a way to honor our brave men and women who serve in the armed services with a simple flyover.

“The Christian Defense Coalition will diligently work to reverse this unjust policy and determine why this flyover was denied in the first place.”

Brandi Swindell, national Christian activist and Director of Generation Life, based in Idaho, adds:

“For the Pentagon to deny this flyover for the first time in the history of our state is deeply troubling and disturbing. During a time of war and especially around the 4th of July we should be doing all within our power as a nation to honor and respect our military. It must be stressed that the flyover was not to honor Christianity, but to honor our fallen heroes who have proudly given their lives to protect our country and advance the cause of liberty around the world. Does this mean in the future that all public rallies must be stripped of any expressions of faith to respect our military? This Administration should be protecting religious expression in the public square, not crushing it. I hope that President Obama will reverse this unjust policy, and next year we will be allowed to give the military the honor they deserve.”

Patti Syme, Director of “The God and Country Rally”
208.573.9300

Patti’s husband Scott is a Colonel in the United States Army currently serving in Iraq.
Christian Newswire

1-877-4PLANWISE or 1-877-475-2694 (toll-free)
Fax Number: 215-702-4238

Dan celia stock picks Happy Birthday, America It sometimes seems that the nation has forgotten that America is a nation under God founded on Judeo/Christian and biblical principles.

Celia’s Investing Blog

Posts Tagged ‘stock picks’

Bullish on KO, GS, GR, NOC, ORCL

I have not predicted much lately on www.predictwallstreet.com. Also, my short-term accuracy has not been the best and I lost most of my four and five star ratings due to my inactivity and being too bullish. Curious to know if my long-term accuracy is as bad, I checked my latest long-term predictions on this blog.

In my year-end blog, I recommended four stocks that should be relatively recession proof: Coca Cola, Goldman Sachs, Goodrich and Northrop Gruman. The table below shows that all four outperformed the SPY (S&P500 equivalent) so far. I still stand behind all four.

1/2/09 open 2/18/09 close Performance
Pick: KO $45.40 $42.68 -5.99%
Pick: GS $84.02 $84.50 0.57%
Pick: GR $37.35 $38.47 3.00%
Pick: NOC $45.71 $45.49 -0.48%
Comparison: SPY $90.44 $79.03 -12.62%

On October 20, 2008, I was bullish on Oracle for the short-term and bearish for the long-term. I found that they should use their cash to buy companies instead of buying back their own shares. Given that Oracle has been buying up companies in the past few month, I revise my outlook to buy. Moreover, checking predictions and accuracy, I see that the overall community has a four-star rating on ORCL, and the overall prediction direction is UP. Current price: 17.04.

From this evaluation, it is clear that my long-term picks have been better than my short-term picks lately. This means I have to get back to predicting more often. Keeping an edge in short-term thinking.

Improving my Stock Picking Skills

I have worked on my stock picking skills. Now, I am not an investment advisor, but I find the method so straightforward and compelling that I want to share it with you. Moreover, it’s free. There is no seminar to pay for, no classes to attend, no long books to read… What I write below and a free account on http://www.predictwallstreet.com is all you need to improve your stock picking skills as well.

I use two simple guidelines:

1. I only trade securities for which I have a four- or five-star rating
2. NEVER, ever do I trade securities for which I have a one- or two-star rating

Here is how it works:

1. I only trade securities for which I have a 4- or 5-star rating

After opening an account on www.predictwallstreet.com, I start predicting on some companies I like. A prediction is always made for the end of the next market day. This means that at the end of the next market day, I know whether or not my stock pick and direction was correct. I track my performance on the My Page.

After predicting a few times on the same stocks, I notice that I have stocks for which my predictions are mostly correct and others that are consistently incorrect. This means I have a different level of affinity for different stocks. PredictWallStreet expresses this affinity in terms of star ratings, which is a measure of accuracy and number of predictions. A four- or five-star rating indicates that my predictions are correct most of the time. It means that I am usually able to correctly forecast a stock price’s reaction to buzz, news such as earnings, or any macroeconomic events.

Hence, by investing only in stocks for which I have either a four-star—or better yet—a five-star rating, I can minimize stock- picking risks and improve the odds for a successful trade.

2. NEVER, ever do I trade securities for which I have a one- or two-star rating

Following the previous argument, logic dictates that investing in one- or two-star-rated stocks is a recipe for disaster. While it is tempting to try to be contrarian to oneself, I do not believe it is even remotely possible. And, yes, I tried it. It WAS a disaster.

Of course, this guideline does not mean that I should give up if I have a one- or two-star rating on a particular security. It only means that I should delay trading and just observe the security until I am able to better forecast its behavior.Of course, if this new knowledge leads to more accurate predictions, my star rating will increase and the first guideline will hold.

Therefore, in order to prevent loss, the most important guideline to follow is to refrain from trading on low-affinity stocks.

I hope this information is useful to you. Feel free to comment on this blog or to send me your feedback.

Rainy day investing – Bullish on Dell and MSFT

Another black Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial (INDU) tanked this morning more than 800 points to levels not seen since 2004 (although it recovered to end up with a loss of “just” 370 points). Money market rates increase. People, companies and banks are hording cash. For the rainy day. Which is here. Growing stronger and stronger into a major storm.

The Dow Jones Industrial (INDU) has lost 30 percent since its market high. Not surprising, today’s 1248 INDU predictions on PredictWallStreet show that people are pessimistic about the future. 55 percent of the users predict the market will further slip tomorrow. Looking at the sentiment trend, I see that users are more and more torn between one extreme and another. The one-month sentiment trend shows 5 occurrences of extremely positive and 4 extremely down investor sentiments not counting today’s extremely bearish sentiment. Nobody knows what is going on, where we are heading to. One day, there is hope. The next day, some nasty news crash it all.

How do you find any good investments in such a turbulent environment? There are several possibilities. One of them is to go short-term and play it day by day or week by week. This gives you a little more room to adjust to changing markets. You can use help from new financial web 2.0 sites. Faruk Jaffer, Chief Investment Officer of Index Gurus, just published an article comparing some of these sites in the article “The Modern Day Crystal Ball“.

Celia’s stock picks and predictions on http://www.predictwallstreet.com.

Bearish on BSX, CVX, the NASDAQ and questions on economic terrorism

First, my two cents on the stock market and economy

The bailout did little to stabilize the markets. Steep rises in unemployment negated every positive impact on stock prices from the bailout. The unemployment numbers show the extend of the crisis, and prove that the mess in the financial sector has reached main stream. Hours worked matched the lowest level since records began in 1964! Is it time to plant a vegetable garden like they did during the depression?

On a different level, Dan Freed voiced an interesting thought on the Street yesterday. He questioned how this mess could happen so quickly. I found this statement really interesting:

“… a lot of traders are saying a lot of the short trades on the financials were coming over electronic trading networks, which allow people to place bets anonymously. Who’s to say a well-funded international or domestic terrorist isn’t taking advantage of widespread market fear and exacerbating the situation?”

While I do not know whether the statement has any merit or not, one thing makes sense to me: a tool that was generated to prevent the public from seeing what was going on during trading can certainly be misused by extremely greedy or even hostile people or organizations.

I have been eying these dark pools for a little while now, trying to figure out their impact not only from a perspective how they impact my trading (liquidity, price…), but also how they affect the overall functioning of the markets. Unfortunately I have no wisdom to share from these thoughts. To me dark pools seem to be the quintessential contrary of the wisdom of the crowd philosophy used by PredictWallStreet that supports transparency. Moreover, if economic terrorism through electronic trading networks is even remotely possible, then any regulatory solutions must make transparency in the financial markets mandatory, be it for trading tools, short sale holdings, and any other hidden truth in the financial system.

My stock picks
Today, I am predicting down on BSX (Boston Scientific), CVX (Chevron) and the NASDAQ. My predictions are based on the following:

  • BSX: Too many bad news lately.
  • Nasdaq: technology will not be protected from economic foes
  • CVX: unemployed people don’t travel, don’t use gas to go to work, rumors of excessive gas station closures on East coast. Earnings will most likely not show good news.

I wished I could predict up on at least one stock. But the outlook for stocks is as gloomy as the wheather today.

Newest pick – Dell

My new pick is Dell. They will announce earnings in 3 days. I got in this morning at a price of $25.14. It closed at $25.04. Luckily there is plenty of time for Dell to recover before Thursday.

Dell has a compelling story: customizable products, low cost fulfillment, steady customer base. Their biggest risk is the downturn in Europe and a tightening of business credits in the US. However, the markets show better than average confidence in the stock: Dell dropped “just” 0.91% today while the S&P500 lost 2.03%.

The biggest risks to Dell’s short-term performance are the economic data releases: consumer confidence tomorrow and GDP data on Thursday. Might turn into a roller coaster earnings ride. May have to hang on tight.

Bearish on Cisco

It is time to get out of TYC. The stock is at 44.09 and moving sluggishly. If I were an investor, I would hold on to it, but as a trader I need a little more action. I got in on July 29 at a price of 41.19. This means 7.04% profit in 8 days.

Today, I am shorting Cisco (CSCO). They will announce earnings in a couple hours. I don’t like the price movement during the day and the sentiment on http://www.predictwallstreet.com/forecast.aspx?symbol=CSCO. I expect that Cisco missed expectations by just a little but have lower future expectations. We’ll see if I am right.

TYC – newest stock pick

I planned to celebrate the one month birthday of my blog. Instead I took my first loss last Friday.

On Wednesday, I entered ABB at 28.56. On Thursday, the stock gapped down due to earnings below expectations and a slowing European market. While this gap is part of the risk I take, I should have exited the trade immediately in the morning. Instead I attended to some unexpected personal matters. I finally got out of the trade on Friday morning at a price of 26.74. This meant a loss of 6.3%.

While I hate to loose, life and the market goes on. Moreover, I have to put the loss into perspective of the cumulative performance of 48 percent in one month. There is certainly enough reason to celebrate. Here the picks I described in the various blogs:

day stock action return cum return
26-Jun dia day trade 0.91% 0.91%
30-Jun ba day trade 0.64% 1.55%
16-Jul eftc buy 1.55%
17-Jul goog short 1.55%
18-Jul eftc sell 32.50% 34.05%
21-Jul goog cover 11.70% 45.75%
21-Jul cern buy 45.75%
22-Jul aapl buy 45.75%
23-Jul cern sell 1.72% 47.47%
23-Jul aapl sell 7.20% 54.67%
23-Jul abb buy 54.67%
25-Jul abb sell -6.37% 48.30%

Yesterday’s stock pick was Tyco International Ltd. (TYC). Entry point: 41.19. You can check the performance at
http://www.predictwallstreet.com/account/mypws.aspx?user=celia728.
I am also test driving a few other stocks.

Bullish on ABB – Selling Cerner and Apple

It’s time to get out of Cerner. The stock is now at 46.79. I predicted up yesterday at a price of 46.00. This is a profit of 1.7% in one day for a stock that is an investing but not a trading stock.

I dropped Apple this morning when it was 166.70 from 155.50 yesterday, a profit of 7.2% in one day.

Posts about stock picks written by celia728